{"schema":"network0-finance-education-v1","version":"2026-09-24","modules":[{"id":"ownership","level":"Foundation","title":"Stocks, funds and market risk","prerequisites":[],"note":"Distinguish ownership, dividends, price appreciation, diversification and total loss. A share price alone does not measure value.","assessment":"Explain why a cheaper share is not necessarily a cheaper business.","sources":["investor"],"mastery":"not assessed","classification":"original study scaffold"},{"id":"accounting","level":"Foundation","title":"Financial statements","prerequisites":["ownership"],"note":"Connect assets = liabilities + equity, cash flows, earnings, debt and dilution. Cash and accounting profit differ.","assessment":"Reconcile a company balance sheet and operating cash flow using dated filings.","sources":["edgar","textbook"],"mastery":"not assessed","classification":"original study scaffold"},{"id":"returns","level":"Undergraduate","title":"Returns and time value","prerequisites":["ownership"],"note":"Separate price return, dividends, fees, taxes, deposits and withdrawals. Compare identical horizons and currencies.","assessment":"Calculate net total return without counting deposits as profit.","sources":["textbook"],"mastery":"not assessed","classification":"original study scaffold"},{"id":"valuation","level":"Undergraduate","title":"Valuation and uncertainty","prerequisites":["accounting","returns"],"note":"Discount scenario cash flows; vary growth and discount rates. P/E is undefined or misleading with nonpositive earnings; valuation is not a timing signal.","assessment":"Produce pessimistic, central and optimistic cash-flow assumptions with sensitivity analysis.","sources":["textbook","edgar"],"mastery":"not assessed","classification":"original study scaffold"},{"id":"statistics","level":"Undergraduate","title":"Probability and estimation","prerequisites":["returns"],"note":"Study sampling error, dependence, outliers, covariance and base rates. An estimated probability is not a known probability.","assessment":"Compare mean returns and uncertainty using a dependence-aware resampling method.","sources":["textbook"],"mastery":"not assessed","classification":"original study scaffold"},{"id":"portfolio","level":"Undergraduate","title":"Portfolio construction","prerequisites":["statistics"],"note":"Account for correlated exposures, liquidity, concentration and estimation error. Diversification does not remove market risk.","assessment":"Compare a cash baseline and diversified benchmark at matched exposure.","sources":["textbook"],"mastery":"not assessed","classification":"original study scaffold"},{"id":"microstructure","level":"Undergraduate","title":"Quotes, orders and liquidity","prerequisites":["returns"],"note":"Bid, ask, spread, timestamps, venue coverage, depth and partial fills affect realizable results. A displayed quote is not a guaranteed fill.","assessment":"Reconcile one order from submission through partial fills, cancellation and fees.","sources":["orders"],"mastery":"not assessed","classification":"original study scaffold"},{"id":"provenance","level":"Undergraduate","title":"Point-in-time data","prerequisites":["accounting","statistics"],"note":"Record source, license, observation time, publication time, retrieval time, revisions, adjustments and checksum. Avoid using later revisions in earlier decisions.","assessment":"Build a data manifest and demonstrate that every feature existed before its decision.","sources":["edgar","fred"],"mastery":"not assessed","classification":"original study scaffold"},{"id":"signals","level":"Graduate","title":"Testable trading hypotheses","prerequisites":["provenance","microstructure"],"note":"Specify universe, signal, decision time, holding period and exit before testing. Include no-trade when expected benefit cannot justify estimated costs and uncertainty.","assessment":"Freeze one candidate configuration and record every alternative tried.","sources":["validation"],"mastery":"not assessed","classification":"original study scaffold"},{"id":"backtesting","level":"Graduate","title":"Chronological evaluation","prerequisites":["signals","portfolio"],"note":"Separate development, validation and untouched final periods. Purge overlapping labels, add a justified gap, include delisted securities and model fills conservatively.","assessment":"Reproduce a walk-forward replay including splits, dividends and stressed costs.","sources":["validation"],"mastery":"not assessed","classification":"original study scaffold"},{"id":"ml","level":"Graduate","title":"Machine learning and calibration","prerequisites":["backtesting"],"note":"Fit scalers and feature selection only inside training folds. Evaluate calibration, drift, stability and ablations; compare with simple rules. LLM explanations are not price labels.","assessment":"Show an untouched test, calibration plot and performance without each feature family.","sources":["validation"],"mastery":"not assessed","classification":"original study scaffold"},{"id":"macro","level":"Graduate","title":"Economic regimes and global comparison","prerequisites":["provenance","portfolio"],"note":"Align release calendars, currencies and historical vintages. Treat regime labels as uncertain; worldwide survey sentiment is not a causal stock forecast.","assessment":"Repeat a macro-feature test using only information released at each historical date.","sources":["fred"],"mastery":"not assessed","classification":"original study scaffold"},{"id":"advanced","level":"Graduate","title":"Factors, derivatives and stochastic models","prerequisites":["valuation","statistics"],"note":"Study factor regressions, duration, convexity and option models with explicit assumptions. Mathematical pricing models do not establish a tradable edge or authorize leverage.","assessment":"Check limiting cases and sensitivity of an advanced model; keep derivatives outside the initial cash pilot.","sources":["textbook"],"mastery":"not assessed","classification":"original study scaffold"},{"id":"replication","level":"Research","title":"Independent challenge and replication","prerequisites":["ml","macro"],"note":"Freeze data hashes, code, parameters, benchmark, costs and acceptance rules. Report failed candidates and all searches. Reproduction is distinct from independent replication.","assessment":"Have another reviewer rerun the package and challenge leakage and cost assumptions.","sources":["validation"],"mastery":"not assessed","classification":"original study scaffold"},{"id":"operations","level":"Engineering","title":"Execution reliability and recovery","prerequisites":["microstructure","backtesting"],"note":"Use durable client identifiers, account-wide reservations and reconciliation. An order timeout means unknown status, not permission to resubmit. Test disconnects and cancel races.","assessment":"Inject duplicate events, partial fills and lost acknowledgements; prove no duplicate exposure.","sources":["orders"],"mastery":"not assessed","classification":"original study scaffold"},{"id":"governance","level":"Engineering","title":"Monitoring and controlled release","prerequisites":["operations","replication"],"note":"Version strategy and limits; record settled cash, external flows, holdings, costs and drawdown. Pause new entries on stale data or reconciliation failures. Review activation independently.","assessment":"Demonstrate halt, alert delivery, recovery and rollback without sending a live order.","sources":["orders"],"mastery":"not assessed","classification":"original study scaffold"}],"formulas":[{"id":"total-return","equation":"R=(P1-P0+D)/P0","units":"P0,P1: comparable share prices; D: dividends per share; R: dimensionless.","boundary":"P0>0; exclude external cash flows; do not add dividends again to a total-return adjusted series.","classification":"mathematical definition or conditional model; not observed profit"},{"id":"log-return","equation":"r=ln(1+R)","units":"R: total return; r: log return, dimensionless.","boundary":"R>-1; sums across time, not across portfolio weights.","classification":"mathematical definition or conditional model; not observed profit"},{"id":"compound","equation":"Vn=V0 × product(1+Rt)","units":"V: currency; Rt: each period return.","boundary":"No external flows; historical returns are not promised future rates.","classification":"mathematical definition or conditional model; not observed profit"},{"id":"present-value","equation":"PV=sum(CFt/(1+k)^t)","units":"CFt: currency at period t; k: discount rate per period.","boundary":"k>-1; cash flows and discount rate must share currency, inflation basis and horizon.","classification":"mathematical definition or conditional model; not observed profit"},{"id":"npv","equation":"NPV=-I0+sum(CFt/(1+k)^t)","units":"I0: initial currency outlay; remaining symbols as present value.","boundary":"A forecast under assumptions, not evidence of execution or market price.","classification":"mathematical definition or conditional model; not observed profit"},{"id":"cagr","equation":"CAGR=(Vn/V0)^(1/Y)-1","units":"Vn,V0: flow-adjusted values; Y: years.","boundary":"Positive endpoints and Y>0; hides interim losses.","classification":"mathematical definition or conditional model; not observed profit"},{"id":"mean","equation":"mean(R)=sum(Rt)/n","units":"n: number of comparable periods.","boundary":"Historical arithmetic average; serial dependence affects inference.","classification":"mathematical definition or conditional model; not observed profit"},{"id":"variance","equation":"s²=sum((Rt-mean(R))²)/(n-1)","units":"Returns: dimensionless; n>1.","boundary":"Sample variance; not a complete tail-risk measure.","classification":"mathematical definition or conditional model; not observed profit"},{"id":"portfolio-return","equation":"Rp=sum(wi Ri)","units":"wi: beginning-period portfolio fraction; Ri: same-period returns.","boundary":"Include cash; weights sum to one for unlevered fully accounted portfolio.","classification":"mathematical definition or conditional model; not observed profit"},{"id":"portfolio-risk","equation":"variance(Rp)=wᵀ Σ w","units":"Σ: covariance matrix for same-horizon returns.","boundary":"Estimated correlations can change; covariance matrix must be valid.","classification":"mathematical definition or conditional model; not observed profit"},{"id":"sharpe","equation":"S=mean(Rp-Rf)/sd(Rp-Rf)","units":"Rf: same-period risk-free return; S: dimensionless.","boundary":"Nonzero standard deviation; sqrt(periods/year) annualization requires suitable dependence assumptions.","classification":"mathematical definition or conditional model; not observed profit"},{"id":"beta","equation":"beta=cov(Ri,Rm)/var(Rm)","units":"Ri: asset returns; Rm: market returns.","boundary":"Nonzero market variance; descriptive sensitivity, not causality.","classification":"mathematical definition or conditional model; not observed profit"},{"id":"capm","equation":"E[Ri]=Rf+beta_i(E[Rm]-Rf)","units":"Expected returns: common horizon, dimensionless.","boundary":"Equilibrium model with restrictive assumptions; not a guaranteed return forecast.","classification":"mathematical definition or conditional model; not observed profit"},{"id":"drawdown","equation":"DDt=1-Et/max(E0,...,Et)","units":"E: positive flow-adjusted equity or unitized index.","boundary":"External deposits must not hide losses; daily sampling misses intraday drawdown.","classification":"mathematical definition or conditional model; not observed profit"},{"id":"spread","equation":"spread_bps=10000(ask-bid)/((ask+bid)/2)","units":"ask,bid: currency/share; bps: basis points.","boundary":"Positive contemporaneous noncrossed quotes; venue coverage must be stated.","classification":"mathematical definition or conditional model; not observed profit"},{"id":"net-pnl","equation":"net_PnL=q(Psell-Pbuy)+dividends-fees-other_costs","units":"q: shares; prices: currency/share; result: currency.","boundary":"Use actual fills; do not subtract spread twice if already reflected in fills. Taxes reported separately.","classification":"mathematical definition or conditional model; not observed profit"},{"id":"flow-adjustment","equation":"period_PnL=ending_equity-starting_equity-deposits+withdrawals","units":"All terms in the same currency and interval.","boundary":"For percentage returns with intraperiod flows use unitization or a justified cash-flow timing method.","classification":"mathematical definition or conditional model; not observed profit"},{"id":"expected-payoff","equation":"EV=pG-(1-p)L-C","units":"p: estimated win probability; G,L,C: currency gain, loss, costs.","boundary":"All estimates uncertain; positive sample EV does not establish future profit.","classification":"mathematical definition or conditional model; not observed profit"},{"id":"sma","equation":"SMA_n(t)=sum(P[t-i], i=0..n-1)/n","units":"P: comparable price; n: bars; result: currency/share.","boundary":"A close-based signal cannot assume execution at that same already-known close.","classification":"mathematical definition or conditional model; not observed profit"},{"id":"budget","equation":"order_cap=max(0,min(order_limit,exposure_room,settled_cash-reserve-open_buy_reservations))","units":"All terms: currency; account-wide reservations.","boundary":"Illustrative cap; enforce asset precision, fees, price movement and broker rules before any order.","classification":"mathematical definition or conditional model; not observed profit"},{"id":"kelly","equation":"f*=(bp-(1-p))/b","units":"b: net win/loss payoff ratio; p: assumed win probability; f*: fraction.","boundary":"Ideal repeated independent binary bets with known probabilities; unsuitable as automatic sizing for uncertain stock forecasts. Study only.","classification":"mathematical definition or conditional model; not observed profit"},{"id":"tracking-error","equation":"TE=sd(Rp-Rbenchmark)","units":"Same-horizon matched portfolio and benchmark returns.","boundary":"State sampling interval; assess costs and exposure differences before comparing.","classification":"mathematical definition or conditional model; not observed profit"}],"sources":[{"id":"investor","title":"SEC Investor.gov: Stocks","url":"https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/investing-basics/investment-products/stocks","scope":"Ownership, risks and financial statements; reviewed","checked_at":"2026-09-24","classification":"reference, not evidence of strategy profitability"},{"id":"textbook","title":"OpenStax Principles of Finance","url":"https://openstax.org/details/books/principles-finance","scope":"External reading reference; full textbook not retrieved","checked_at":"2026-09-24","classification":"reference, not evidence of strategy profitability"},{"id":"edgar","title":"SEC EDGAR APIs","url":"https://www.sec.gov/search-filings/edgar-application-programming-interfaces","scope":"Filings and XBRL data access; reviewed","checked_at":"2026-09-24","classification":"reference, not evidence of strategy profitability"},{"id":"fred","title":"Federal Reserve FRED API","url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/docs/api/fred/","scope":"Economic observations and vintage data documentation; reviewed","checked_at":"2026-09-24","classification":"reference, not evidence of strategy profitability"},{"id":"orders","title":"Alpaca order documentation","url":"https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/orders-at-alpaca","scope":"Order lifecycle and execution constraints; reviewed","checked_at":"2026-09-24","classification":"reference, not evidence of strategy profitability"},{"id":"validation","title":"scikit-learn TimeSeriesSplit","url":"https://scikit-learn.org/stable/modules/generated/sklearn.model_selection.TimeSeriesSplit.html","scope":"Ordered validation and gap parameter; reviewed","checked_at":"2026-09-24","classification":"reference, not evidence of strategy profitability"}],"blueprint":{"objective":"Evaluate a bounded, cash-only stock strategy after costs and uncertainty; allow an unresolved or negative result.","status":"research specification; live execution is not implemented by this kit","stages":[{"id":"mandate","action":"Specify capital, reserve, allowed assets, exposure, loss pause, review owner and benchmark.","required_artifact":"Versioned owner-reviewed mandate; no automatic approval from deposit.","state":"evidence required"},{"id":"intake","action":"Collect permitted prices, filings and macro observations with point-in-time lineage.","required_artifact":"Manifest, timestamps, license, checksums and missing-data report.","state":"evidence required"},{"id":"hypothesis","action":"Freeze signal, timing, universe, costs, exits, comparisons and rejection rules.","required_artifact":"Registered strategy specification and complete candidate-search log.","state":"evidence required"},{"id":"replay","action":"Run chronological out-of-sample replay with realistic costs, gaps and fill constraints.","required_artifact":"Reproducible artifacts, matched cash/hold baselines and uncertainty; no invented fills.","state":"evidence required"},{"id":"challenge","action":"Check leakage, revisions, survivorship, multiple searches and regime sensitivity.","required_artifact":"Independent review; reject or revise when evidence fails the predefined criteria.","state":"evidence required"},{"id":"paper","action":"Run prospectively with actual intended capital limits; test broker failures.","required_artifact":"Dated paper fills, reconciliation, drawdown and successful fault-injection reports.","state":"evidence required"},{"id":"release","action":"Review evidence, implementation, funding, account permissions and monitoring.","required_artifact":"Separate authenticated owner activation; this educational kit cannot activate trades.","state":"evidence required"},{"id":"monitor","action":"Track positions, costs, flow-adjusted performance, stale data and policy changes.","required_artifact":"Audit trail, tested alerts, pause/recovery process and scheduled human review.","state":"evidence required"}],"acceptance":"Predeclare numeric performance, cost, drawdown, sample-size and uncertainty thresholds before the final test. No universal profitable threshold or number of trades is asserted here. Require all artifacts and independent review; cash is a valid outcome.","rejection":"Reject a candidate if it fails the preregistered benchmark/cost/risk rules. Revise the method when data or tests are insufficient; do not relabel missing evidence as success.","safety":"No margin, shorting, derivatives, live orders, transfer, credential handling or automatic activation in this kit. Halting new entries does not cap losses in existing holdings.","replication":"Preserve source manifests, versions, split boundaries, seeds, parameters, costs, all trials and output hashes. A second reviewer must reproduce the result.","next_state":"retain as an educational and research workflow; trading readiness unresolved","matrix_connections":[{"role":"Finance and economics","consumes":"dated filings, prices and macro releases","produces":"testable hypotheses and valuations"},{"role":"Statistics and machine learning","consumes":"point-in-time features","produces":"held-out metrics, uncertainty and calibration"},{"role":"Simulation","consumes":"frozen rules, costs and data manifests","produces":"labeled simulated fills and stress results"},{"role":"Evidence review","consumes":"claims and reproducible artifacts","produces":"supported, contradicted or unresolved decisions"},{"role":"Operations","consumes":"reviewed specification","produces":"readiness checks and audit requirements; no authorization from AI text"}],"evidence_record_fields":["claim_id","source_url","source_publication_time","retrieved_at","observation_time","data_vintage","license","sha256","currency","timezone","adjustment_policy","strategy_version","split_boundaries","cost_assumptions","benchmark","result_artifact","reviewer","limitations"],"boundaries":"Logical role mapping, not a claim that new live data connectors or autonomous workers were provisioned. Shared research context receives selected notes, not all textbooks or model training."},"live_orders_enabled":false}